Assessment of climate change impacts on population health in various regions of Poland and predictions to 2100

Clinical research provide information about reaction on particular groups of patients on atmospheric stimuli. They can stimulate subjective health disorders at majority of people with specific illnesses (like cardiovascular, respiratory, immune). At people of great health risk, i.e. elderly, small children, convalescents) extreme atmospheric stimuli can lead to serious troubles or even to death. During last 30 years relations between atmospheric factors and human health were studied in many countries by bioclimatologists, physicians, epidemiologists and physiologists.

The most recent European projects PHEWE and EuroHEAT documented significant increase in mortality in great cities because of heat and cold waves. For Poland general relations between weather and mortality are similar to observed in whole Europe. However, there are some gaps in our knowledge about regional differentiations of mortality and morbidity caused by weather factors. We also need more detailed information how particular climate elements influence morbidity rates for specific groups of illnesses. 

The main purposes of the proposed project are:

• defining the role of climatic factors in mortality and morbidity for particular groups of climate related diseases in different regions of Poland,
• developing of complex indicators of climate change impacts on human health in various regions of Poland,
• elaborating predictions of health state in various regions of Poland to the year 2100,
• suggesting proposals of adaptation strategies in regional scale.

The research will deal with two aspects of health status of society: deaths (total mortality and deaths in particular age groups) and health disorders due to particular climate related diseases.

The final effect of the project will be monograph dedicated to regional differention of actual health status in Poland, as an effect of contemporary climate, and healt status predicted for the year 2100, as a result of climate change.