Transport infrastructure development and modal shift in the Polish space in the years 2000-2010

The subject of the project is a comprehensive and dynamic analysis of traffic flows (motor vehicles and trains) as well as traffic of people and goods in road and railway transport within the space of Poland in the first decade of the 21^st century. The analysis is to be carried out in the context of road and railway infrastructure developments in the 2000-2010 period, which has a decisive impact on travel/freight transport time on particular segments of the network. The project has an interdisciplinary character since it combines elements of transport geography (gravity models, input-output models), sociology of transport (studies on mobility) and traffic engineering (road traffic structure).

The first stage envisages construction of databases for the project purposes, based on the GIS (Geographical Information System) technology. The database will be named “TRRAPS XXI database” (Transport Road and Railway Activity in the Polish Space in the XXI Century) and it is going to be a collection of hundreds of thousands of records ( hundred-meter-long sections of transport network) described by the largest possible quantity of data that concern motor cars and railway trains traffic flows as well as time of travel for motor cars and railway trains in the years 2000, 2005 and 2010. The TRRAPS XXI database will make it possible to conduct a correlation analysis from a dynamics perspective between development of the transport infrastructure (changes in the travel/transport time) and the mobility illustrated by traffic flows, which should result in an analysis of inter-branch flows for demand between road and railway transport in the years 2000-2010. Such database should also allow for assessing the efficiency of rail carriers in the context of optimization of travel time in passenger rail transport.

The database will constitute a point of departure for creating, in the second stage of studies, a gravity model named “TRRAPS XXI gravity model”. In a broader context, along with import of data concerning the actual movements of people and goods, it will be possible to calibrate the gravity model (function of space resistance) and to change the parameters in line with an increase in social mobility and with inter-regional movement of goods. In order to assess the matrices of flows and to calibrate the gravity model in road transport, it is envisaged to purchase and make use of the existing databases: among others, a database from the National Traffic Model (GDDKIA – General Directorate for National Roads and Motorways), a database of PKP PLK (Polish State Railways Polish Railways Lines), data from a representative survey carried out in road transport at the NUTS 3 level of matrices (GUS – the Central Statistical Office), and also with the use of commute data obtained by GUS during the Poland National Census 2011 as well as of regional traffic surveys conducted within the metropolitan areas.

The project will therefore be a natural continuation of gravity studies taken up by geography professors: Zbyszko Chojnicki (1966), Andrzej Wróbel (1969), Waldemar Ratajczak (1999), Zbigniew Taylor and Marek Potrykowski (1982), as well as by traffic engineers (e.g. a traffic-network model of Poland created in the Road and Bridge Institute of the Warsaw University of Technology (Brzeziński 1999).

Project’s goals can be divided into methodological, cognitive and applicative. The methodological goals consist in:

1. developing matrices of flows on the basis of available data from databases of GDDKiA, PKP PLK, GUS and from other studies conducted during the project,
2. developing an innovative method of data collection with a special focus on network (division of road and rail network into several hundreds of thousands of hectometers and assigning network data to the particular sections),
3. further development of a model for motor cars traffic velocity (passenger cars and goods vehicles) on the national and voivodeship roads based on the variables affecting the speed of cars,
4. devising an original method of comparing travel times in passenger rail transport (technological time travel on network’s sections, time following from an actual velocity of rail trains in traffic between stations, time travel as given in the timetable),
5. devising the method of inter-branch flow analysis of demand for road and rail transport, with taking account of national trends, as well as of inter-branch flows in the particular transport corridors.

Cognitive goals consist in:

1. analysis examining the effect of development of road and rail transport infrastructure (reducing the travel/freight transport time) on inter-branch flows of demand from a spatial perspective),
2. analysis examining the effectiveness of rail carriers through comparing the technological and actual travel time in traffic between stations as well as travel time as given in the timetable,
3. analysis examining directions of flows (matrix source – aim) of road users, primarily in selected metropolitan areas, but also, in a broader context, on a national basis in the form of analysis of commuting flows at the NUTS 5 level.

Applicative goal primarily provides opportunity for assessing the effects of development of road and rail transport infrastructure in Poland in the context of:

1. shortening the travel time,
2. changes in flows of traffic for the motor vehicles and rail trains,
3. inter-branch flows of demand for road and rail transport.