Migration and futures of ethnic groups in the Russian Federation

Dramatic changes in the size and ethnic composition of the populations of the Russian Federation pose a question of their possible futures, demographic, economic and other. The aim of the project is first, to forecast the development of the future ethnic populations of the Russian Federation and then to analyse the consequences of predicted changes for geographic development, demography, migration and population policies, economy, politics, international relations, and security.

Such research is needed as the existing population forecasts do not include ethnicity dimension, while the studies concidering future ethnic composition are based on arbitrary assumptions and lack the support of quantitative data.

Due to changes in demographic data collection in the Russian Federation it is the very last moment when such research can be conducted.

The project team consists of Russian and Polish experts, some specialising in the Russian Federation development, some in demographic issues. We expect that such diversity will allow for an objective and multidimensional analysis of consequences of ethnic change.

The project will be implemented in four phases: data collection, population forecast by ethnicity, analysis of the results of population forecasts from various points of view (geographic, demographic, economic, migration and population policies, international relations and security) and preparation of the report and publications.